On August 28, Shinzo Abe announced his resignation as Prime Minister of Japan due to a recurrence of ulcerative colitis, prematurely ending his fourth term as Japan’s leader. Although Shinzo Abe served as Japan’s prime minister from 2006 to 2007, his legacy on Japan’s foreign and domestic policies was most firmly imprinted in his three terms following 2012.
In his second term, Abe launched an ambitious economic program that sought to stimulate Japan’s stagnant economy. Nicknamed Abenomics, the policy entailed increasing the nation’s money, increasing government spending, and reforming various regulations. Though not ultimately reaching certain goals, Abenomics was a modest success, as it ended Japan’s deflation trend and, to some degree, revitalized its economy.
Abe’s most important legacy was arguably his administration’s foreign economic policy. In the sphere of international trade, he secured international free trade deals and salvaged the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Signed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in July 2018, the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement became the world’s largest bilateral free trade deal, encompassing nearly ⅓ of global GDP and 635 million people. This trade deal sent a powerful signal that two of the biggest economies, Japan and the European Union, staunchly opposed protectionism. The Trans-Pacific Partnership was a promising trade partnership between the United States and eleven other Asia-Pacific countries. However, the TPP was on the verge of collapsing when President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the agreement in 2017. Despite the widespread belief that the partnership wouldn’t succeed without the U.S., Shinzo Abe convinced the eleven countries to reconsider and garnered all eleven signatures for the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a remake of the original TPP.
The post-WWII era saw Japanese markets that were largely protectionist and difficult to penetrate. It wasn’t until the 1990s that Japan began its turn to foreign trade and investment. Following Abe’s lead, Japan drifted further away from protectionist policies and embraced a free-market economy, setting a precedent for other Asian countries to follow.
Over the past few years, China and the United States have created a dangerous military flashpoint in the South China Sea. Bordering countries such as Malaysia, Taiwan, and Brunei are increasingly wary of the brewing tensions between the two major powers. Under Shinzo Abe, Japan has become the regional leader in maritime security cooperation amidst rising geopolitical risks. Abe’s strategy involved cultivating closer maritime security and defense relationships with key countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Now, Japan’s ties with Southeast Asian countries are stronger than ever, with recent cooperation on naval shipbuilding, engagement in naval exercises, and collective rulings against China’s South China Sea claims.
Shinzo Abe has also been influential in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, an informal four-way strategic forum between the United States, Japan, Australia, and India. These four democracies have common interests in maintaining stability in the Indo-Pacific, protecting freedom of navigation, and defending a rules-based economic system. Shinzo Abe, the architect of the Quad, first proposed this quadrilateral format for democratic partners to convene in his book Utsukushii Kunihe (Toward a Beautiful Country). Moreover, Abe has been credited to have brought greater attention to the importance of the Indo-Pacific in his 2007 speech to the Indian Parliament, which was soon followed by the first maritime Quad talks. The Abe administration also coined the concept of a free and open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), which gained support from Southeast Asian countries and Quad members. Since the Quad was reestablished in 2017, Shinzo Abe’s amicable and close relationships with the leaders of all three countries have served as a crucial binding force for the current Quad. In a way, Shinzo Abe was both the visionary and facilitator of a group featuring four of the largest democracies in the world.
Shinzo Abe re-established Japan’s international standing, strengthened relations with key allies, and laid the groundwork for cooperation and diplomacy in years to come. Nevertheless, his departure leaves major problems unresolved. Long-standing territorial disputes remain a thorn in Japanese ties with China, Russia, and South Korea, and Japan’s economy continues to suffer from low growth that has only worsened ever since the pandemic. Furthermore, the issue of whether or not Article 9 in the Japanese Constitution should be amended to allow offensive military capabilities is still on the table. Advocates deem Article 9 to be outdated and revisions necessary for Japan’s security, while opponents believe that Japan’s current pacifist constitution is key to preserving peace.
Given today’s unstable international climate and accumulating tensions and threats, Japan’s future Prime Minister will have significant shoes to fill. Abe’s successor will have to not only take on these challenges, but also uphold Shinzo Abe’s legacy—maintaining Japan’s robust alliances, continuing its status as a champion of free trade, and signaling its dedication to Indo-Pacific stability and security.
